| 摘要: |
| 文章使用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据，运用双重差分（DiD）模型和工具变量下的局部平均处理效应（LATE-IV）方法，研究了唐山大地震对个体受教育水平和在劳动力市场中表现的影响。研究发现，唐山大地震使得个体受教育年限减少0.14-0.21年，可看作地震的短期教育损失；此外，唐山大地震使得个体受教育年限的减少进而带来的收入损失约为3.51%-4.77%，带来的人力资本损失约占2005年唐山地区生产总值的0.30%-0.41%，可看作地震的长期教育损失。 |
| 关键词: 唐山大地震；人力资本；双重差分模型；工具变量；局部平均处理效应 |
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| The Educational Cost of the Exogenous Shock: Evidence from Tangshan Earthquake in 1976 |
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WANG Jun, LI Bo
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Business School/Capital Institute for Economics of Education, Beijing Normal University
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| Abstract: |
| Based on a random sample from 1 percent population survey data of 2005, this paper studies the impacts of Tangshan Earthquake on the educational attainment and subsequent labor market outcomes of affected cohorts using the methodology of difference in differences model and the local average treatment effect interpretation of instrumental variables technique. We find that the schooling years of the cohorts potentially affected by Tangshan Earthquake is 14%-21% of a year of schooling lower than the non earthquake cohorts, which can be considered as the short term educational cost of Tangshan Earthquake. The rate of return to years of schooling for the earthquake cohorts is 20.93%-27.85%. The earthquake leads 3.51%-4.77% loss of average income through the reduction of schooling years. A loss of 0.30%-0.41% of GDP in 2005 can be attributed to the lower educational attainment of the earthquake cohorts, which can be considered as the long term educational cost of Tangshan Earthquake. |
| Key words: Tangshan Earthquake; human capital; difference-in-differences model; instrumental variable; local average treatment effect |
